2024 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings
Two types of NFL teams exist: Those currently employing a franchise quarterback and those looking for one.
Some teams have their guy, like the Bengals with Joe Burrow, the Chargers with Justin Herbert, and the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes. Lots of teams don’t have their guy. Some are going to draft a young quarterback this week, expecting him to become their guy.
Only time will tell if those teams are right or wrong. Until then, I’m going to give you the rundown on the six quarterbacks who project somewhere in the first round: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix, Jr., and USC’s Caleb Williams.
Much is made about what a player does during individual drills at the Scouting Combine, but I don’t care about all that. Throwing against air makes everyone look great. The news that comes out of player interviews in Indy is worth considering, and factored into my final ranking, but most of my analysis is based on game tape … because tape don’t lie.
The Day One Starters
Step 1: Drop either of these two into your starting lineup.
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit.
1. Caleb Williams (USC)
Far too often this time of year, a so-called “expert” says something profoundly stupid and those comments take over the narrative surrounding a particular draft prospect.
This year, that so-called “expert” is former Pro Bowl offensive lineman Taylor Lewan. After the NFL Draft Combine in February, Lewan had plenty to say about former USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the player long presumed to be the no. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
I did not get a good vibe from Caleb Williams throughout the combine process. He essentially came to the combine for the free gear and the interviews. Only player in combine history not to do a medical review. Didn’t run, didn’t throw. His choosing not to throw was, ‘Hey there’s a lot of film on me, you can watch that in real action.’ He’s obviously an extreme talent, but he has this type of ‘I’m better than you’ attitude.
Now if that’s not the individual he is, he’s more than welcome to come on the bus and explain himself. But what I saw from the short sample size I got of watching a few interviews of him on my way to the combine was, the guy is very full of himself. He’s got some big time yes people in his camp right now that are getting in his ear a little too much.
Lewan himself admits that he’s basing this incredibly stupid take on a “short sample size” from “watching a few interviews.” Even though Williams doesn’t owe Lewan (or any other member of the NFL media) an explanation for his decision, he explained it anyway:
I’ll be doing the medical stuff, just not here in Indy. I’ll be doing it at the team interviews. Not (all) 32 teams can draft me, there’s only one of me. So the teams that I go to, to visit, those teams will have the medical and that will be it.
Williams is right about his medicals and about his game film, too. There’s a lot of it, and it’s a lot better than watching Williams throw against air. Seeing Williams play real games against real opponents would allow teams, or Lewan himself, to see Williams’ incredible arm talent and pocket presence. They would see his ability to make plays in and out of structure and why Williams’ work outside the pocket has been compared to that of Patrick Mahomes.
Williams isn’t Mahomes. There are warts in Williams’ game — his footwork and ball security chief among them — but there’s a reason he’s been touted as the no. 1 pick in this year’s draft for the better part of two years: He’s really good at playing the quarterback position.
Pros
- Might be better working out of structure than in it — Williams creates plays out of nothing and makes throws that many quarterbacks can’t.
- Arm talent is fantastic. Williams’ throws have plenty of strength behind them and his release is quick, which translates well to the pros.
- Generates arm strength through torque in legs and core.
- Williams always seems comfortable in the pocket. His movement inside the pocket is good, he keeps his eyes downfield, and he doesn’t seem to struggle getting through his reads.
- Some talking heads don’t like Williams’ deep ball but I disagree. He can hit the big throws without issue.
Cons
- Might be better working out of structure than in it — Williams can’t play hero ball too often in the NFL because it won’t work like it did in college.
- Footwork is consistently messy. Williams makes it work far more often than not, but I’d like to see him clean it up at least a little as he makes the transition to the NFL.
- Didn’t always take care of the ball — although he didn’t throw many picks, Williams had more than 30 fumbles in college.
Likely landing spot: Chicago
Chicago’s plan with the no. 1 pick in this year’s draft has been the worst-kept secret in football. They’re taking a quarterback. You know it, I know it, and we’ve known it for months.
My ideal fit: Doesn’t matter …
… because Williams will be the first name off the board in Thursday night’s first round.
Chicago already looks to be doing for Williams what they didn’t for Justin Fields, which is setting him up for success. D.J. Moore is an excellent receiver coming off a career year and should continue to thrive opposite Keenan Allen, who arrived via trade on Mar. 14. D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert give the team options at running back.
The Bears could double dip and grab Williams even more help with the no. 9 pick. Grabbing a wide receiver like LSU’s Malik Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze remains a good option, although it’s more likely that Chicago pursues one of the elite tackle prospects like J.C. Latham (shout out to a fellow Wisconsinite!) or Joe Alt to protect Williams’ blind side for the next decade.
Chicago’s front office and coaching staff both failed Justin Fields, a fantastic prospect that could have been the team’s franchise quarterback. Bears general manager Ryan Poles would do well to learn from those mistakes or Chicago’s quest for a franchise quarterback will not end with Williams.
2. Jayden Daniels (LSU)
You’d be hard pressed to find many NFL draft analysts that don’t have Caleb Williams rated as the no. 1 quarterback in this year’s draft. There’s a lot of debate about who is no. 2, but for me, there is no discussion to be had.
LSU’s Jayden Daniels is a locked in, day one starter with true superstar potential. From whistle to whistle, Daniels has all the tools necessary to be a top quarterback in the NFL — a great understanding of his offense, strong and consistent throwing mechanics, and the ability to make plays both in and out of structure.
As I watched Daniels’ 2023 game film, I couldn’t help but notice the similarities between Daniels and another dual-threat quarterback who won the Heisman Trophy: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
A lot of what Daniels put on tape last season reminds me of early Lamar, both good and bad. The electric playmaking ability is undeniable and jumps off the screen. Daniels is also an accomplished passer, a skill Jackson had coming out of Louisville that was largely ignored by old guys who couldn’t understand where football was heading. The league has smartened up on players like Jackson and Daniels, which is why we’re talking about Jayden Daniels coming off the board at no. 2 instead of no. 32.
Like Jackson, Daniels will begin his pro career with durability concerns connected directly to his size, or lack thereof. While Daniels is about two inches taller than Jackson, he’s also about 10 pounds lighter than Jackson was coming out Louisville. Jackson has had to bulk up over the years and Daniels will need to do the same.
To be clear, I’m not saying Daniels is the next Lamar Jackson. He might be, sure, but not today. He won’t get there unless the team that drafts Daniels builds around his skill set just like the Ravens did, and continue to do, for Jackson.
Pros
- Pre-snap work is excellent. Daniels displays a high football IQ, recognizing pressure looks and making the necessary adjustments.
- Daniels is an elite playmaker in the run game, as evidenced by his 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rusher last season.
- Despite being a true dual-threat quarterback, Daniels is comfortable and content working within the pocket, where he regularly shows smooth and natural movement.
- Consistent throwing platform allows Daniels to be consistent with his throws.
- Passing mechanics are smooth and, at times, look effortless.
Cons
- He’s tall (6' 4") but he’s also very thin (210 pounds). There’s very real durability concerns for him as an NFL quarterback, especially if he continues to take hits like he did in college.
- Daniels’ deep ball could use some work. His deep accuracy isn’t great and he sometimes leaves his deep throws a little short.
- The processing time on Daniels’ reads is inconsistent. It’s very Goldilocks: sometimes it’s too fast, sometimes it’s too slow, and sometimes it’s just right.
Likely landing spot: The second or third pick
Washington owns the no. 2 pick and probably isn’t trading out of the spot because they need a quarterback. That would theoretically make Daniels a slam dunk to go second, but there’s no guarantee that Washington takes Daniels — throughout the last month, the Commanders have been linked with J.J. McCarthy and early projections had Washington selecting Drake Maye.
Daniels and Washington are not a great pairing. The guy tasked with building an offense around Daniels would be new Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who couldn’t build a proper offense around a dual threat quarterback the first time he had the chance.
If the Commies go with Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy, I can’t see Daniels slipping past no. 3. New England may take Daniels themselves or they may decide to trade down for more picks (as they’ve already expressed a willingness to do) so a quarterback-needy team can pick the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
My ideal fit: Minnesota
The Vikings need someone exciting under center. Kirk Cousins is a dork I’ve dunked on endlessly and, in six seasons as the team’s starting quarterback, Cousins led Minnesota to exactly one playoff win. The six seasons before that were somehow even bleaker, a comedy of errors starring the likes of Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and Sam Bradford.
Minnesota general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah may be setting the team up for a big move in the draft. In that case, I’d be doing everything in my power to make sure that big move lands me Jayden Daniels.
Cousins is gone and the team needs a real starter, because Sam Darnold is not it. The offensive line is solid. T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson are two of the best at their respective positions and Jordan Addison has the makings of a future star. Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell is a former offensive coordinator, a smart coach who made Cousins look like a top-10 quarterback. Imagine allowing him to build Minnesota’s offense around Daniels’ skill set. (Or don’t if you’re a fan of the Bears, Lions or Packers.)
The Projects
Remember back in the day (or now, if you’re not as old as me) when you had that friend who always made really bad dating decisions? Y’know, the one that always picked a guy or girl who needed fixing?
Quarterback-needy NFL teams are that friend. And try as they might, those teams don’t usually fix the flawed partner they pick. But sometimes they do, and that’s why other teams keep trying.
I’ll talk about fits for each player, but with Dak Prescott’s future in Dallas very much up in the air, the Cowboys are a very interesting landing spot for both of these guys. Both will almost certainly be off the board when the Cowboys make their first-round selection, and I don’t think Jerry and Stephen Jones would have the balls to pull the trigger on a new quarterback, but it would make a lot of sense for the team to do so if they don’t expect to retain Prescott beyond the upcoming season.
T-3. Drake Maye (North Carolina)
Every draft class has a toolsy quarterback who needs some polish. This year, that player is North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
Maye has prototypical size (he’s 6' 5" and 220 pounds, roughly the same as Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence) to go along with a strong arm and the confidence to use it. Maye’s athleticism allows him to extend plays behind the line of scrimmage and pick up crucial yards beyond it.
Physical talent is one thing. Maye’s is unquestionable. But his on-field performance and decision-making ability are anything but.
Crucial performance stats like completion percentage, air yards per attempt, and touchdown percentage are all down year over year for Maye. His interception percentage went way up, from 2.0 percent in 2022 to 3.3 percent in 2023. For comparison purposes, Caleb Williams was never above 1.9 percent as USC’s starter. 2.0 percent would have tied Maye for 18th in the NFL with Aidan O’Connell and Jared Goff last season. 3.3 percent would have been third to last, with only Sam Howell and Mac Jones posting poorer numbers.
Maye also displays a lack of awareness both before and after the snap. He misses pre-snap reads, overlooks open receivers, and forces throws that simply aren’t there. That’s not something I want to see out of someone who is supposed to be my next franchise quarterback.
There are pieces of a franchise quarterback in there. Some team is going to think they’re the ones that can put the puzzle together. It worked for Josh Allen and the Bills, but what team in the top end of the draft can do what Buffalo did for Allen? Would you trust a team like the Commanders or Giants to surround Maye with everything that he needs to succeed? I certainly wouldn’t. But maybe that won’t be the case. Maybe a well-run organization will set Maye up for success and coach his bad habits away.
Maye’s range of outcomes is awfully large, and because of that, his landing spot matters more than just about any other prospect on this list.
Pros
- All the arm talent in the world. Maye will not struggle to make the throws he needs to on Sundays.
- Maye has never seen a throw he’s afraid to make. That confidence gets him trouble sometimes, but it also allows him to make some incredible plays.
- Athleticism is not an issue. Defenses will pay if they don’t respect Maye’s ability to move the chains in the run game.
- More often than not, Maye looks comfortable in the pocket and makes good, subtle movements to avoid defenders.
Cons
- Footwork is consistently sloppy, leading to errant throws. Consistent ball placement is an issue for Maye and it stems from his footwork.
- Decision-making ability is a real concern. Too many times, Maye overlooks or chooses not to throw to an open receiver.
- Awareness is also a concern. He’s prone to making bad decisions, a problem that will only get worse against NFL defenders that are faster and smarter than the ones Maye faced in college.
Likely landing spot: Great question
Maye probably isn’t falling out of the top 15 — the Commanders (no. 2), Patriots (3), Giants (6), Vikings (11), Broncos (12), Raiders (13), and Saints (14) could all theoretically be in play for Maye, as could another team that may trade up to get in front of one of these teams.
Washington, New England and Minnesota are the three teams that were most often connected to Drake Maye in the lead-up to the draft, but any of the teams I mentioned above could be in play for the former Tar Heels quarterback.
My ideal fit: New England
As you may or may not have heard, Bill Belichick is no longer the head coach of the New England Patriots. Belichick’s departure allows New England to begin their long overdue rebuild, which includes finding a quarterback after the Mac Jones experiment failed miserably.
Maye is going to need some seasoning and would do well to sit behind Jacoby Brissett for some (or all) of the 2024 season. New England’s rebuild is likely to be a long-term project, which would allow Maye to develop at the pace he needs to be successful in the NFL.
T-3. J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is the most difficult evaluation of the six prospects on this list.
Each of the other five guys on this list were given the keys to the offense and led their teams to various levels of success. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are bona fide playmakers who are the last two players to win the Heisman Trophy. Drake Maye is a high-upside prospect that has shown flashes of elite play. Michael Penix, Jr. and Bo Nix are experienced leaders, both five-year starters who saved their best for the end of their collegiate careers.
J.J. McCarthy … well, he just kind of kept things on track for the Wolverines. Because he wasn’t asked to lead the offense, it’s hard to evaluate McCarthy’s ceiling as a player. The good thing for McCarthy, as well as the team that drafts him, is that Michigan’s former quarterback is the youngest prospect in this year’s draft — he’s only been able to legally drink alcohol for three months.
Jim Harbaugh’s favorite player in the 2024 draft also knows how to win football games — McCarthy went 27–1 in two years as Michigan’s starting quarterback, culminating in a national championship last season.
Teams in search of a quarterback are going to fall in love with McCarthy’s winning pedigree, as well as his ability to take care of the ball — McCarthy threw only nine interceptions in his college career.
Unlike Drake Maye, however, McCarthy does not have an elite arm or prototypical size. He maintains a solid throwing platform, but McCarthy is inconsistent with his ball placement at all three levels. And although he looks decisive with his throws, McCarthy often takes a lot of time working through his progressions.
Pros
- McCarthy is good at finding his launch point in and out of the pocket. When flushed off his base, McCarthy can move and reset his base without it affecting the quality of his passes.
- Mechanics and platform are both generally solid.
- Working out of structure isn’t a problem for McCarthy. He isn’t quick to bail out but he can make plays when things go wrong.
- He’s a tough runner who fights through pressure in the pass game and for extra yards when running the ball.
Cons
- Consistent ball placement is an issue. McCarthy’s deep throws are a little flat and he sometimes throws behind his receivers. It’s a bit puzzling why McCarthy does this because his mechanics are usually fine.
- McCarthy is slow to get through his progressions and sometimes locks onto his first read, whether they’re open or not.
- Despite an incredible win-loss record, McCarthy’s individual production was average. His 44 touchdown passes in two years as Michigan’s starter are 13 fewer than anyone else on this list — Daniels (57), Maye (62), Penix (67), Williams (72) and Nix (74) all easily outpaced McCarthy over the last two seasons. In addition, McCarthy’s 5,710 passing yards in that time is more than 1,000 yards fewer than the next closest prospect (Jayden Daniels with 6,725 yards).
Likely landing spot: Higher than we thought a few months ago
Until he helped Michigan win the national title in January, McCarthy was considered a late-first round pick. For various reasons (Michigan’s playoff run and an exceptional pro day workout, for example) McCarthy’s stock has skyrocketed and he is now expected to come off the board early in the first round.
In the Jayden Daniels section, I mentioned Minnesota as a candidate to move up in the draft for a quarterback. Although I think they should move up for Daniels, the prevailing rumor over the last few weeks is that the Vikings will end up with McCarthy. Washington has been connected to McCarthy recently, as have the Giants after McCarthy had a private work out for the team.
McCarthy is almost guaranteed to come off the board in the top ten. Where he ends up and which pick is used on him is anyone’s guess.
My ideal fit: Denver
For reasons that remain unclear, Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos are reportedly comfortable entering the season with either Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson as their starting quarterback.
Yeah … I don’t get it, either.
McCarthy profiles a little closer to Drew Brees than Drake Maye does, something that may appeal to Payton. McCarthy is a smart player who is used to playing under an intense, high-profile coach and could be the franchise quarterback that Payton uses to bring the Broncos back to relevance.
There’s a lot of rebuilding to do on Denver’s offense, but Payton and the Broncos could do a lot worse than drafting McCarthy to fill the most important hole in their roster.
The Question Marks
No draft prospect is a sure thing. There are too many variables at the pro level to bank on any quarterback turning into a franchise savior. Our last two quarterbacks have to overcome those hurdles as well as a few others they’re bringing with them to the pros.
5. Michael Penix, Jr. (Washington)
Let’s talk about red flags.
Like dating, you want to limit the amount of red flags in a potential partner. The same thought exercise can be applied to scouting quarterback prospects and, unfortunately, Michael Penix, Jr. has two pretty big red flags.
First is his age. Although Penix, who turns 24 a couple weeks after the draft, isn’t the oldest prospect on this list, but he’s close. Second, and more concerning for any team thinking about using a high draft pick on Penix, is his injury history: Penix tore his right ACL in 2018, suffered a right shoulder injury in 2019, tore his right ACL again in 2020, and dislocated his throwing shoulder in 2021.
The good news, if there is any with that kind of injury history, is that Penix hasn’t missed a start since that 2021 shoulder injury. In fact, since he made the move from Indiana to Washington, Penix has become one of the better performers in college football.
My favorite part of Penix’s game is his intelligence. As I watched his game tape, I saw a player that was clearly comfortable making pre-snap adjustments to protect himself in the pocket and set his offense up for success. Penix makes good decisions with the ball, rarely taking unnecessary sacks or making questionable throws.
Whichever coaching staff lands the former Washington Husky needs to work with Penix to correct issues with his throwing platform. There were a number of instances in each game I watched where Penix’s platform failed him and, unsurprisingly, his ball placement suffered. Not only does Penix often open up instead of following through his throws, he has a tendency to sort of drift backwards in the pocket and leave throws a little short.
As the old saying goes, the best ability is availability, and Penix has questions to answer on that front. But there’s a good player in there and the right team will be rewarded for rolling the dice on Michael Penix, Jr.
Pros
- Pre-snap recognition is excellent. Penix has proven comfortable recognizing defensive looks and adjusting the offense accordingly.
- Arm strength is not a concern. Penix’s throws often look effortless (in a good way) and his compact throwing motion serves him well.
- Penix has the ability to attack all levels of the field without putting the ball into dangerous places.
- Throws with anticipation and does so without a drop in accuracy. This is a skill that will serve Penix well in the league.
Cons
- Throwing platform is very inconsistent. His throws are excellent when he keeps his mechanics in check, but Penix must work on doing it regularly when he arrives in the NFL.
- Falls off of throws, which affects accuracy. Penix needs to step into those throws instead of drifting away from them.
- Intermediate and deep accuracy needs work. Not only does he leave balls short when he falls off throws, he has a tendency to sail balls over receivers’ heads.
Likely landing spot: Somewhere after the 10th overall pick
Until about a week ago, I would have said Penix wasn’t going to hear his name called in Thursday’s first round. The proverbial winds have changed over the last week and now Penix is gaining steam as a potential first-round selection. Penix moving into the first round would give his new team an extra year of control on Penix’s contract, but even with recent rumors in mind, the second round still seems possible for the former Indiana Hoosiers and Washington Huskies quarterback.
My ideal fit: Seattle
Yes, the Seahawks have Geno Smith and, yes, they just traded for Sam Howell. I get that.
But Smith turns 34 this fall and has no guaranteed money on his contract beyond the upcoming season. Howell may be a fun project but Seattle would not have to take on dead money if the moved on from Howell, who is only signed for this season and next.
Penix just spent the last two years lighting up the college game under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Guess where Grubb is coaching now? A smoother transition for coach and player simply doesn’t exist. If Grubb and Penix can successfully take their fireworks show across town from Husky Stadium to Lumen Field, the Seahawks could be set at quarterback for years to come.
6. Bo Nix (Oregon)
Bo Nix is a good quarterback.
Look at his counting stats from last season — 4,508 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, three picks, and an NCAA all-time record 77.4 completion percentage — and you might think Nix is really, really good.
You may be right! But I’m not sold.
There is one counting stat that really concerns me when it comes to Bo Nix: his average depth of target (ADOT) of 6.9 yards. For those of you who aren’t advanced stat nerds like me, ADOT is a nice way of capturing how far downfield a quarterback throws his passes from down to down.
Nix’s ADOT of 6.9 yards ranked 193rd among qualifying Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) quarterbacks, per PFF. There are only 134 FBS schools, which means as many as 59 teams had multiple quarterbacks that had a better ADOT than Nix did in 2023. All five of the quarterbacks you’ve already read about had a significantly higher ADOT, with Caleb Williams’ mark of 9.2 yards being the lowest of the remaining quintet.
Nix appears to have been propped up by the Oregon offensive system. After three largely forgettable seasons at Auburn, Nix’s production took a huge leap forward with the Ducks. I mean, his 45 touchdown passes last season are more than he had in three years at Auburn combined.
Age is also an issue — Nix is already 24. He’s older than everyone in this draft class as well as current NFL starters C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. Developmental prospects are fine when they’re 21, like Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are, but it’s a little more concerning when a guy like Nix may not provide a return until he’s in his late 20s.
There’s a lot to like about Nix. He’s a smart player with a strong arm and the ability to make plays with his feet. But there’s just as much to suggest Nix doesn’t have the tools necessary to become a quality NFL starter.
Pros
- Smart player who looks comfortable making pre-snap adjustments and working through progressions.
- Good (but not great) arm strength that doesn’t fall off when Nix works outside of the pocket.
- Enough athleticism to make defenses pay when they don’t respect his ability to run.
- Tough player who will fight for yards when running the ball.
Cons
- Oregon system may have artificially elevated Nix as a quarterback with a significant amount of screens, push passes and easy reads.
- Decision-making leaves a lot to be desired, especially when Nix works out of structure.
- Throwing platform needs work. Nix often looks lackadaisical with his mechanics, flipping throws with his wrist instead of setting up properly in the pocket.
- Inconsistent accuracy and velocity on throws. This is almost certainly connected to Nix’s spotty mechanics.
Likely landing spot: Fifth QB off the board
Trusting mock drafts is a fool’s errand. Outside of the first pick, none of the draftniks in the sports world have any idea what’s going to happen. At the very least, they can project the order in which prospects at a certain position are likely to come off the board, and the popular belief this spring is that Bo Nix will be drafted before Michael Penix, Jr. Nix has been projected as high as no. 12 to Denver and as low as the second round, but he’s almost always the fifth quarterback to be selected.
My ideal fit: New Orleans
No disrespect to Derek Carr, but the Saints need some juice at quarterback if they’re ever going to find their way back to Super Bowl contention.
Nix is going to need some help to succeed as a pro, and New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak may very well be the man for the job. Kubiak’s dad, Gary, worked with Mike Shanahan to create the so-called “Shanahan system” that has influenced so many offensive schemes currently run in the NFL. That system makes life easy on quarterbacks with quick throws and simplified reads, two concepts Nix used at Oregon and could easily translate to the pros.
History tells us there are no guarantees for success, and each of these six players will need a proper support system to reach their pro potential. Only the future will tell us which players can translate their skill set to a successful pro career.
